Zee Business Mutual Fund Helpline 11 March 2019 Mr Prakash Ranjan Sinha

Zee Business Mutual Fund Helpline show 18 Feb 2019 of Prakash Ranjan Si...

Budget Analysis

Budget Analysis 

One very important point which I want to point to all .

Most Indians were annoyed when petrol prices did not decrease in same proportion when the crude oil prices reduced in international market ( 2017-18) .

In 2017-18 government borrowing was 45073 crore whereas in 2018-19 budget it was 4621 crore and revised estimate is 4227 crore for 2018-19 . For 2019-29 it is fixed to 4731 crore . Huge reduction in government borrowing

Government borrows to meet the fiscal deficit and rising expenditure . Huge reduction in borrowing means government has enough surplus to meet its expenditure in year 2018-19 and 2019-20 .

We all know we borrow only when need and no other option left . Borrowing comes with a cost ( to pay interest ) . Anyone who borrows more is under more strain than anyone who borrows less.

Had government passed on the oil price reduction benefit in same proportion to consumers during low oil price time then they would have been left with less surplus and borrowing trend would have continued as 2017-18 .

More borrowing by government leads to increase in interest rate particularly in economy which has rising inflationary trend . Inflation comes when demand ( improving living standard ) exceeds supply ( actual production ) . Rising interest rate means higher home loan EMI , products become costlier and we have lesser money in hand to spend and enjoy life.

But this government has acted prudently . Now inflation is under control i.e no price rise, nil tax for income up to 5 lakh . Now up to 70 % population has more money to spend and enjoy life .

IS THIS ACCHE DIN OR NOT . JUST THINK LOGICALLY .

Zee Business Mutual Fund Helpline 09 Jan 2019 Mr Prakash Ranjan Sinha

Three Dependence on Relationship

Three Dependence on Relationship

Each one of us are individual souls , have individual life but since we are living in family , society we are not totally isolated from others but interrelated or dependent on others . It affects our life , our happiness , sadness etc to the extent how we view and rely on dependence level . If we know how to detach from or minimise these dependence level our lives will be like heaven on this earth which most people have started equating as Hell ( Ghor Kalyug ) .

Lets evaluate each of the dependence level and how we can minimise them .

·         Physical dependence : a child is dependent on parents and in old age parents are dependent on their children . Its because physical condition is not such that both a kid, a child and a very old at times can manage their work . For young ones its natural up to an age but the earlier parents educate their kids to be self dependent its better . For old age dependence is not in anyones hand . No one knows till what age will live but have some idea when body starts becoming frail . By maintaining good health through balanced diet , regular physical exercise yoga etc one can ward off bad health to a large extent and can lessen physical dependence to some extent . The more good health one

  

·         Financial dependence : our financial need of essentials and education is taken care by our parents till we study . Its over once we start earning our own livelihood . Yes some parents out of love , affection keep giving money to their earning children . excessive financing can lead to unnecessary expenditure and make habits bad . Once parents not able to give money many resort to borrowing , live life on credit which can lead to debt trap .  children should also evaluate that do they really financial support if not really required ? Either work hard for more money for own extravagance need or limit your needs as per your earning . Fiscal discipline is a must in everyone life . Live within your means . The more financially independent one person is he is more happy and stress free . Every person should ensure that he should be financially independent post retirement till his last breath . Do proper retirement planning . If financially dependent on your children then you are adding your own unhappiness and that too at fag end of your life . If financially independent in old age you live happily , get respect from your children , not considered as burden . Decide yourself .

·         Emotional dependence : This is most complex dependence of the three . Very difficult to judge the extent as is not as visible and quantifiable like first two . Since it is most complex the least emotional dependence on others the best it is . People say that one should have EQ and empathy but the more someone shows toward you , the more weaker you become mentally and psychologically . Believe in yourself and God . We do get mental comfort if soothing words are expressed but does that solve the problem ? . It does give you confidence and support but do we need someone else to build confidence or remove fear in ourselves , can’t we do it for ourselves ? Meditation , connecting with your inner self , getting answers from your inner self can do best than words of any else human being . Spend quality time with your self , seek strength from your inner self and almighty .

Any person who is least dependent physically , financially and emotionally on others is one of the  happiest persons on this earth . Check yourself and you will find what I have stated is true or not . So now you must have realised happiness or unhappiness is all your own creation and it is due to these 3 dependence level on others .

Invest fearlessly and grow wealth through Equity MF

Invest fearlessly and grow wealth through Equity MF

Each one of us should understand why we invest and for whom we invest. We invest for ourselves and our family. If we are investing for ourselves it has to be the best. The Best is something which can be converted quickly and easily into cash (liquidity), must be safe i.e. it should be giving me a return beating inflation and since my money is going to be used in an economic system, I should be adequately compensated in terms of return.

We invest because there are many needs and requirements which will come in different stages of life and we require adequate amount of money for it. How much we will be requiring in future is very difficult to say but one thing is sure it will be much more than today’s cost.  Since apart from normal inflation there is bigger impact of lifestyle inflation due to increasing aspirations, needs and wants, I will require much more money than originally thought . We can look back into our own lives 5, 10, 15, 20…years back and would have never thought of new types of expenses we incur today.

The asset which is closely related with lifestyle products and takes care of lifestyle inflation is Equity. Equity is most closely related with economy vis a vis other asset.  if I am investing for myself and my family my definition for best investment should be one that gives me desired amount when I want and that I will get from equity investment. E.g. in 70s and 80s having scooter or motorcycle was a normal Indian dream. Today all dream to have car and that also premium one. If one had visualised that 20 years ahead his need will be car and if in line with change in lifestyle he had invested in Maruti or in stock of big car then by the time he wanted to buy a big car his investment would have also grown much more than the cost of that car. But this one can say in hindsight. For a normal person not easy to visualise his need or new product years ahead nor can he analyse the trend but he does not need to worry as there are professional to take care of this.

If leading a prosperous life means having luxury products at one end then he has to have enough money to purchase those things when desired and that can happen without much of stress by investment in right asset (equity) and right product (Equity Mutual Fund).

Rather than investing directly on own in equity, investment through a proven fund is always better because stock selection is research based, diversification is based on risk-return optimisation, decision on logics rather than emotions.    

Fear of losing in Equity looms on the mind of many investors but if he has this conviction that it is aspiration / need of the individuals / household that leads to creation of products by different companies then there is nothing to fear. The pattern, trend is analysed by research and money is invested by fund manager in those companies where there is sustainable positive growth.

The risk which has to be managed by investor in Equity Mutual fund is selection and time. Selection risk is managed by investing through a proven fund having a sound and methodical investment process, consistent good performer across all market cycles. Time risk is managed by having a long-term horizon (above 5 years) and not timing the market and investing regularly. Yes, in short term there will be volatility in stock market and fund NAV can go up or down but investor should understand volatility is an opportunity for fund manager. Volatility is an interplay of movement of money in stock market among stocks on account of mismatch of prices vis a vis performance. This is due to changing investment behaviour moderating variable expectation of different investors. It is also due to sentiment due to changing economic conditions. In first case money will find its way to better performing companies as investors want profit and they will recognise and reward performance in long term. Regarding economic situation there could be temporary factors which are to be ignored as it is short lived or it could be slowdown or recession which can extend from few months to some years (like in 2008-09) but if as an investor my conviction on economy is strong i.e. growth is all what all human being wants then ultimately the long-term trend is positive only. There is no loss in long term as neither individual nor economy wants to remain in bad or negative situation. There is always a natural trend of normalising and move towards betterment i.e. growth.

Invest in Equity Mutual Funds fearlessly but taking care of selection and time risk . Grow rich . be wealthy .  

Learnings from Johari Window

Learnings from Johari Window:

In our management books we have all learnt about Johari window. It is about how much I or others know / don’t know about me.  It is basically 4 parts

1         -- Open Area -- Everyone including me know about myself

2         – Blind Area -- others know about me but I am ignorant about it

3         – Hidden Area -- no one knows about me but only I know about it

4         – Unknown Area – Neither I nor others know about me

If we look at the above picture we find the biggest area is UNKNOWN to all living beings on earth ( approx. 60%) , followed by next biggest area HIDDEN , the area which is known to me only and unknown to others which may be approx. 24% ) , followed by OPEN and BLIND area which could be 8 % each .

So how much I do not know about myself ? Its 68 % ( 60+8 ) .

So how much I know about myself ? Its 32 % ( 24+8 ) .

So how much others do not know about myself ? Its 84 % ( 60+24 ) .

So how much others know about myself ? Its 16 % ( 8+8 ) .

Without getting into any argument about the percentage part stated above we can easily say we do not know ourselves fully. Do we not try to find what we are? , who we are? , what strengths we have? etc. The fact we know is mostly bodily and worldly related but what about soul part?  Do we know what we have done in our past lives if we at all believe in next birth? We know much lesser about ourselves than what we don’t know about ourselves still we feel as if we know everything. Meditation is a process that has helped many to know the UNKNOWN and BLIND aspects of our life. That has helped people to know what actually they are, what they are supposed to do, what good virtues they carry which has been overshadowed by this worldly temptations. There is a great need of exploring oneself.

Again if we look how much others know about me, it is more baffling.  It is much lesser than what they do not know about me. We take pride if someone appreciates, give compliment but if I don’t know anyone fully does not this appreciation a bit shallow? Are we not appreciating again on bodily, physical, worldly aspects of that individual? Have we ever tried to find how good a soul is that person? Should we not know the real person and value accordingly rather than just valuing the person of external visible aspects? Today trust, love, affection etc. is decreasing and broad reason is neither we know our self fully nor the other person.  Everything is superficial.  

If the world has to change for good, the age old Johari window has to be proven wrong by all of us. Meditation is one way where we get in touch with our real self. If all of us start knowing our -self more than what we actually know today , if all of us start connecting with super soul through meditation, the ignorance , hatred etc. existing between humans , religion will get wiped off from this planet . Even from the career perspective meditation will not only make one understand his strength but also give him better wisdom to understand rights and wrongs of the world in much better manner .

I look forward for a day when OPEN area of Johari window expand like anything and UNKNOWN gets reduced to the minimal. That will be the day when we can say this is true world and true life .