Gold vs Equity

 

Gold vs Equity

If you hear any Investment expert he will always say Gold is not a true investment asset, Its an alternate asset, best hedge against uncertainty, one should not have allocation more than 5% to 8% of his total portfolio etc etc. About equity it is said, it is the best growth asset, will give you best return in long term, maximum allocation should be in equity etc etc.

All textbook theories do not work in today’s practical world which is becoming impure day by day. How long we will live, talk and believe in old concepts. Why not examine the things in realities of today life. Equity in textbook and in theory is same everywhere but the risk has increased more in India than many developed countries.

When I look at almost 100 years of gold price movement the maximum fall has been from 1962 to 1964 and then rise again ,1997 to 1998 and then rise again, There has been some more occasions where there has been year to year fall in price but marginal but that has risen quickly back to same old level. Only these are the two periods where it took sone 3-5 years to reach back same old price level. When I compare same with Equity (Sensex movement), year to year variability has been much more. The best of the companies index has been more volatile than Gold. In very long term Sensex might have given higher return that Gold but the same can not be said now in long term (10 years period).

My concern is not past but future now. Risk in Equity is increasing manifold times vis a vis Gold. The way integrity of Promoters and Management of many companies under doubt, the way Banks yet to learn lesson on proper due diligence on Corporate loans and above all the increasing number of corrupt politicians and their nexus with corrupt promoters clearly being visible I feel risk in equity is increasing. Text book and theoreticians will only talk of economic risk, business risk and market risk. Where some one is talking of integrity risk? This is the biggest risk. Facts and figures are being manipulated to portray as business and market risk. A profit-making company suddenly default where even the best of auditors have been found to have manipulated the financial statements of the company. The law is so weak that from a naked eye one can see company net-worth has depleted but at the same time promoter personal wealth has grown manifold times. Hire the most expensive lawyer, drag the case for decades in court and live king size life is the mantra what many default promoters are following. With universe of quality company reducing choice risk is increasing.

When I look at Gold there is no such risk as above. Today one has range of products to invest in. From Gold ETF, Gold Fund to Sovereign Gold Bond to Physical Gold to Gold saving schemes. The biggest risk is always of purity but now that is also resolved in whatever way you go. Physical gold is now duly certified one. Investment through financial route takes care of theft, storage etc. With respect to volatility or negative return Gold is less volatile and more stable than Equity. Gold has given stable to good return in mid to long term. Yes, may be if 15, 20 years and above period Equity has given better return but can that be said same going forward? Let’s look at the other risk aspects of Gold more from demand vs supply aspect. Demand has been growing considering existing customary norms (marriage, festivals, gifts etc) catalysed by growing population and their increasing personal income. On supply side it has not been supplemented by discovery of many new Gold mines. So growth in Demand exceeds growth in supply. Based on simple economics principle prices of Gold will have normal growth. It’s the uncertainty factor or flight for safety sentiment factor that accelerates the normal growth in short term ( as seen last 2 years ) which gets corrected later on. So stable return is what one has found in gold in mid to long term

One reason as to why there have been so many advocates of equity and not gold is simply because the fortune of many (Fund houses, Stock brokers) is correlated more with equity than Gold. Gold advertisement has always been passive as compared to equity.

Let’s relook this 5% to 8% allocation myth and need to think if allocation to be increased? As a investor one should look to the asset or investment product which is more suitable in mid to long term as an alternative to equity. In all probability there will be correction in Gold price as has appreciated phenomenally last 2 years but I am not saying to look for short term. May be after massive correction it can become an opportunity for investment with higher allocation.